Прибыль Mercuria в первом полугодии подскочила на 88% из-за сырьевых шоков

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** The Hormuz crisis escalates into a full-scale conflict, leading to global energy supply disruptions and price volatility. This triggers increased demand for commodities from major economies like China and India, driving prices even higher. * **Confirmation indicators:** A sustained increase in geopolitical tensions in the region, followed by official declarations of war or military action. * **Time horizon:** 30 to 60 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The Hormuz crisis remains a political flashpoint with limited escalation, leading to increased market volatility but not a major disruption in commodity supply chains. Mercuria benefits from temporary price spikes and increased trading activity. * **Confirmation indicators:** Continued diplomatic efforts by various global powers to de-escalate the

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** The Hormuz crisis escalates into a full-scale conflict, leading to global energy supply disruptions and price volatility. This triggers increased demand for commodities from major economies like China and India, driving prices even higher. * **Confirmation indicators:** A sustained increase in geopolitical tensions in the region, followed by official declarations of war or military action. * **Time horizon:** 30 to 60 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The Hormuz crisis remains a political flashpoint with limited escalation, leading to increased market volatility but not a major disruption in commodity supply chains. Mercuria benefits from temporary price spikes and increased trading activity. * **Confirmation indicators:** Continued diplomatic efforts by various global powers to de-escalate the

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** The Hormuz crisis escalates into a full-scale conflict, leading to global energy supply disruptions and price volatility. This triggers increased demand for commodities from major economies like China and India, driving prices even higher. * **Confirmation indicators:** A sustained increase in geopolitical tensions in the region, followed by official declarations of war or military action. * **Time horizon:** 30 to 60 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The Hormuz crisis remains a political flashpoint with limited escalation, leading to increased market volatility but not a major disruption in commodity supply chains. Mercuria benefits from temporary price spikes and increased trading activity. * **Confirmation indicators:** Continued diplomatic efforts by various global powers to de-escalate the