КСИР сообщил об операции против вооруженных группировок на севере Ирака
Корпус стражей исламской революции (КСИР) сообщил об операции против вооруженных группировок на севере Ирака. Иранский Корпус стражей исламской революции (КСИР) заявил, что нанес удар по штаб-квартире «террористических группировок» в Сулеймании на севере Ирака, согласно заявлениям, опубликованным иранскими государственными СМИ. В КСИР заявили, что цель находилась в иракском Курдистане, и назвали операцию частью своей кампании против вооруженных сепаратистских группировок, действующих вблизи границ Ирана. В сообщениях иранских СМИ также утверждается, что Тегеран ужесточил действия против таких группировок, утверждая, что иностранные игроки пытаются поддержать антииранские ополченцы.
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** The IRGC's operation in northern Iraq triggers heightened tensions between Iran and Iraqi authorities. This escalates into a broader diplomatic crisis, with both countries potentially increasing military presence near their borders. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) might seek international mediation or support from the United Nations to de-escalate the situation. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) Increased rhetoric from Iranian officials regarding "hostile actions" by Iraqi forces; 2) Reports of increased military activity along Iran's border with Iraq, including air patrols and troop deployments; 3) The KRG officially requesting UN intervention in the conflict. * **Time horizon:** 1-2 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The IRGC operation is met with a measured response from Iraqi authorit
Status Quo
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** The IRGC's operation in northern Iraq triggers heightened tensions between Iran and Iraqi authorities. This escalates into a broader diplomatic crisis, with both countries potentially increasing military presence near their borders. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) might seek international mediation or support from the United Nations to de-escalate the situation. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) Increased rhetoric from Iranian officials regarding "hostile actions" by Iraqi forces; 2) Reports of increased military activity along Iran's border with Iraq, including air patrols and troop deployments; 3) The KRG officially requesting UN intervention in the conflict. * **Time horizon:** 1-2 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The IRGC operation is met with a measured response from Iraqi authorit
De-escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** The IRGC's operation in northern Iraq triggers heightened tensions between Iran and Iraqi authorities. This escalates into a broader diplomatic crisis, with both countries potentially increasing military presence near their borders. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) might seek international mediation or support from the United Nations to de-escalate the situation. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) Increased rhetoric from Iranian officials regarding "hostile actions" by Iraqi forces; 2) Reports of increased military activity along Iran's border with Iraq, including air patrols and troop deployments; 3) The KRG officially requesting UN intervention in the conflict. * **Time horizon:** 1-2 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The IRGC operation is met with a measured response from Iraqi authorit
Первичный источник: Middle East Eye
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