Axelrod's Oracle
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geopolitical··severity 9

Иран нанес удары по энергетическим объектам в израильской Хайфе — КСИР

Корпус стражей исламской революции предупредил, что атаки противника на энергетическую инфраструктуру могут иметь опасные последствия для всей мировой экономики

Сценарии цепочки

A

Escalation

50%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel retaliates with airstrikes on Iranian military sites within 72 hours. The US and EU impose sanctions on Iran's financial sector, followed by a UN Security Council resolution condemning the attacks. Tensions escalate further as regional powers like Saudi Arabia and UAE increase military presence in the region. This leads to increased global energy prices, potentially causing economic instability in vulnerable countries.

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military installations confirmed by multiple independent sources within 72 hours of the initial attack. US Treasury sanctions on Iran's financial sector are publicly announced and implemented. A UN Security Council resolution condemning the attacks is adopted with a majority vote.
B

Status Quo

38%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel retaliates with airstrikes on Iranian military sites within 72 hours. The US and EU impose sanctions on Iran's financial sector, followed by a UN Security Council resolution condemning the attacks. Tensions escalate further as regional powers like Saudi Arabia and UAE increase military presence in the region. This leads to increased global energy prices, potentially causing economic instability in vulnerable countries.

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military installations confirmed by multiple independent sources within 72 hours of the initial attack. US Treasury sanctions on Iran's financial sector are publicly announced and implemented. A UN Security Council resolution condemning the attacks is adopted with a majority vote.
C

De-escalation

13%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel retaliates with airstrikes on Iranian military sites within 72 hours. The US and EU impose sanctions on Iran's financial sector, followed by a UN Security Council resolution condemning the attacks. Tensions escalate further as regional powers like Saudi Arabia and UAE increase military presence in the region. This leads to increased global energy prices, potentially causing economic instability in vulnerable countries.

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military installations confirmed by multiple independent sources within 72 hours of the initial attack. US Treasury sanctions on Iran's financial sector are publicly announced and implemented. A UN Security Council resolution condemning the attacks is adopted with a majority vote.

Первичный источник: TASS English

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