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geopolitical··severity 6

Чемпионат мира по футболу: политика и прибыль от красивой игры

Чемпионат мира еще не начался, но политика, война и противоречия уже конкурируют с футболом.

Сценарии цепочки

A

Escalation

50%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Increased political tensions between host nation and participating nations escalate into public disputes at stadiums during matches. This leads to increased security measures, potentially disrupting tournament flow and impacting fan experience. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline scenario:** The World Cup proceeds as planned, with minimal political interference impacting the tournament's flow and atmosphere. However, existing tensions between nations may manifest in subtle forms of protest or diplomatic pressure on participating teams.

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased rhetoric from government officials regarding opposing teams' behavior and the potential for protests. A credible threat of violence against players or staff members is reported by multiple sources.
B

Status Quo

38%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Increased political tensions between host nation and participating nations escalate into public disputes at stadiums during matches. This leads to increased security measures, potentially disrupting tournament flow and impacting fan experience. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline scenario:** The World Cup proceeds as planned, with minimal political interference impacting the tournament's flow and atmosphere. However, existing tensions between nations may manifest in subtle forms of protest or diplomatic pressure on participating teams.

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased rhetoric from government officials regarding opposing teams' behavior and the potential for protests. A credible threat of violence against players or staff members is reported by multiple sources.
C

De-escalation

13%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Increased political tensions between host nation and participating nations escalate into public disputes at stadiums during matches. This leads to increased security measures, potentially disrupting tournament flow and impacting fan experience. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline scenario:** The World Cup proceeds as planned, with minimal political interference impacting the tournament's flow and atmosphere. However, existing tensions between nations may manifest in subtle forms of protest or diplomatic pressure on participating teams.

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased rhetoric from government officials regarding opposing teams' behavior and the potential for protests. A credible threat of violence against players or staff members is reported by multiple sources.

Первичный источник: Al Jazeera

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