Ирак и Сирия вновь открывают воздушное пространство после израильско-иранских атак
Ирак и Сирия вновь открыли воздушное пространство после израильско-иранских атак Ирак и Сирия вновь открыли свое воздушное пространство после того, как временно закрыли его во время последней перестрелки между Израилем и Ираном. Управление гражданской авиации Ирака заявило, что оно по-прежнему следит за развитием событий и поддерживает «самый высокий уровень безопасности». Воздушное сообщение также возобновилось в международном аэропорту Дамаска после того, как сирийские власти сняли ограничения на воздушное пространство страны.
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
## Scenario Forecasts **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel and Iran continue escalating tensions, potentially involving proxy groups or increased military deployments in the region. A direct confrontation between Israeli and Iranian forces is likely, increasing regional instability and potential for wider conflict. This escalation could lead to a renewed conflict in Syria, with increased cross-border attacks and possibly a full-scale war between Israel and Iran. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Increased reports of military activity in the region, including air strikes or missile exchanges, alongside heightened tensions between Israel and Iran on social media and diplomatic channels. * **Time Horizon:** 7 to 14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The current situation remains tense but avoids a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran. Regional
Status Quo
## Scenario Forecasts **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel and Iran continue escalating tensions, potentially involving proxy groups or increased military deployments in the region. A direct confrontation between Israeli and Iranian forces is likely, increasing regional instability and potential for wider conflict. This escalation could lead to a renewed conflict in Syria, with increased cross-border attacks and possibly a full-scale war between Israel and Iran. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Increased reports of military activity in the region, including air strikes or missile exchanges, alongside heightened tensions between Israel and Iran on social media and diplomatic channels. * **Time Horizon:** 7 to 14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The current situation remains tense but avoids a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran. Regional
De-escalation
## Scenario Forecasts **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel and Iran continue escalating tensions, potentially involving proxy groups or increased military deployments in the region. A direct confrontation between Israeli and Iranian forces is likely, increasing regional instability and potential for wider conflict. This escalation could lead to a renewed conflict in Syria, with increased cross-border attacks and possibly a full-scale war between Israel and Iran. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Increased reports of military activity in the region, including air strikes or missile exchanges, alongside heightened tensions between Israel and Iran on social media and diplomatic channels. * **Time Horizon:** 7 to 14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The current situation remains tense but avoids a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran. Regional
Первичный источник: Middle East Eye
Хотите получать такие сценарии в email или Telegram до публикации в каталоге?
Тарифы и подписки →