Axelrod's Oracle
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geopolitical··severity 6

Персонал иранского нефтеперерабатывающего завода «Карун» эвакуирован после удара Израиля — СМИ

По предварительным данным, в результате израильских ударов был поврежден нефтехимический завод в провинции Хузестан.

Сценарии цепочки

A

Escalation

50%

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** **Chain:** Israel's strike on Iran's Karoon oil refinery triggers retaliatory strikes by Iranian forces targeting Israeli infrastructure, including military facilities and energy grids. This escalation escalates tensions between the two nations and increases regional instability. The conflict could lead to broader sanctions from international bodies like the UN Security Council. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** **Chain:** The Karoon oil refinery damage leads to diplomatic efforts between Iran and Israel, with the involvement of international mediators like the UN or EU. Iran may seek compensation for damages from Isr

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** 1) Iranian ballistic missile tests launched towards Israel; 2) Reports of increased air defense activity in Israel, followed by Israeli military responses.
B

Status Quo

38%

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** **Chain:** Israel's strike on Iran's Karoon oil refinery triggers retaliatory strikes by Iranian forces targeting Israeli infrastructure, including military facilities and energy grids. This escalation escalates tensions between the two nations and increases regional instability. The conflict could lead to broader sanctions from international bodies like the UN Security Council. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** **Chain:** The Karoon oil refinery damage leads to diplomatic efforts between Iran and Israel, with the involvement of international mediators like the UN or EU. Iran may seek compensation for damages from Isr

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** 1) Iranian ballistic missile tests launched towards Israel; 2) Reports of increased air defense activity in Israel, followed by Israeli military responses.
C

De-escalation

13%

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** **Chain:** Israel's strike on Iran's Karoon oil refinery triggers retaliatory strikes by Iranian forces targeting Israeli infrastructure, including military facilities and energy grids. This escalation escalates tensions between the two nations and increases regional instability. The conflict could lead to broader sanctions from international bodies like the UN Security Council. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** **Chain:** The Karoon oil refinery damage leads to diplomatic efforts between Iran and Israel, with the involvement of international mediators like the UN or EU. Iran may seek compensation for damages from Isr

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** 1) Iranian ballistic missile tests launched towards Israel; 2) Reports of increased air defense activity in Israel, followed by Israeli military responses.

Первичный источник: TASS English

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