Иран заявляет, что прекратил нападения на Израиль после первой перестрелки после перемирия

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran's retaliatory strikes against Israel escalate to include increased missile attacks and potential drone deployments, further escalating tensions in the region. Israel responds with a heightened military presence near Iranian borders, potentially including air strikes on Iranian military facilities. This escalation could lead to increased regional instability and a surge in global oil prices as markets become uncertain. * **Confirmation indicators:** Iran launches additional ballistic missiles towards Israel within 24-72 hours of initial strikes. Israel announces the deployment of new military units near Iranian borders, and international media reports confirm heightened tensions. * **Time horizon:** 1 week to 3 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The immediate tension between Iran and Israel r

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran's retaliatory strikes against Israel escalate to include increased missile attacks and potential drone deployments, further escalating tensions in the region. Israel responds with a heightened military presence near Iranian borders, potentially including air strikes on Iranian military facilities. This escalation could lead to increased regional instability and a surge in global oil prices as markets become uncertain. * **Confirmation indicators:** Iran launches additional ballistic missiles towards Israel within 24-72 hours of initial strikes. Israel announces the deployment of new military units near Iranian borders, and international media reports confirm heightened tensions. * **Time horizon:** 1 week to 3 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The immediate tension between Iran and Israel r

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran's retaliatory strikes against Israel escalate to include increased missile attacks and potential drone deployments, further escalating tensions in the region. Israel responds with a heightened military presence near Iranian borders, potentially including air strikes on Iranian military facilities. This escalation could lead to increased regional instability and a surge in global oil prices as markets become uncertain. * **Confirmation indicators:** Iran launches additional ballistic missiles towards Israel within 24-72 hours of initial strikes. Israel announces the deployment of new military units near Iranian borders, and international media reports confirm heightened tensions. * **Time horizon:** 1 week to 3 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The immediate tension between Iran and Israel r