Цены на нефть растут на фоне торговых забастовок Ирана и Израиля вопреки Трампу

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Escalation in Israeli-Iranian conflict leads to heightened regional tensions and increased military activity. This triggers a rise in global oil prices as investors anticipate supply disruptions. The escalation escalates within **7 days**, leading to an increase in geopolitical risk premiums across various asset classes, including bonds, equities, and commodities. * Increased rhetoric from both Israel and Iran regarding further military action against each other. * Reports of increased military activity in the region, such as heightened air patrols or naval exercises. * A surge in oil futures trading volume and price volatility. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The conflict between Israel and Iran remains largely contained, with diplomatic efforts continuin

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Escalation in Israeli-Iranian conflict leads to heightened regional tensions and increased military activity. This triggers a rise in global oil prices as investors anticipate supply disruptions. The escalation escalates within **7 days**, leading to an increase in geopolitical risk premiums across various asset classes, including bonds, equities, and commodities. * Increased rhetoric from both Israel and Iran regarding further military action against each other. * Reports of increased military activity in the region, such as heightened air patrols or naval exercises. * A surge in oil futures trading volume and price volatility. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The conflict between Israel and Iran remains largely contained, with diplomatic efforts continuin

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Escalation in Israeli-Iranian conflict leads to heightened regional tensions and increased military activity. This triggers a rise in global oil prices as investors anticipate supply disruptions. The escalation escalates within **7 days**, leading to an increase in geopolitical risk premiums across various asset classes, including bonds, equities, and commodities. * Increased rhetoric from both Israel and Iran regarding further military action against each other. * Reports of increased military activity in the region, such as heightened air patrols or naval exercises. * A surge in oil futures trading volume and price volatility. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The conflict between Israel and Iran remains largely contained, with diplomatic efforts continuin