Ракеты перехвачены над оккупированным Восточным Иерусалимом и Западным берегом

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran-backed groups in Gaza intensify attacks on Israeli infrastructure, leading to retaliatory airstrikes by Israel on targets within Gaza. This escalates into a larger conflict with potential for Hezbollah involvement and broader regional instability. * Increased rocket fire from Gaza towards Israeli cities. * Reports of civilian casualties in both Gaza and Israel due to increased violence. * Formal declaration of war by Iran or an allied group against Israel. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The current tensions remain high, with continued diplomatic efforts from international actors to deescalate the situation. However, a fragile peace remains precarious and susceptible to renewed violence, with both sides maintaining military readiness.

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran-backed groups in Gaza intensify attacks on Israeli infrastructure, leading to retaliatory airstrikes by Israel on targets within Gaza. This escalates into a larger conflict with potential for Hezbollah involvement and broader regional instability. * Increased rocket fire from Gaza towards Israeli cities. * Reports of civilian casualties in both Gaza and Israel due to increased violence. * Formal declaration of war by Iran or an allied group against Israel. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The current tensions remain high, with continued diplomatic efforts from international actors to deescalate the situation. However, a fragile peace remains precarious and susceptible to renewed violence, with both sides maintaining military readiness.

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran-backed groups in Gaza intensify attacks on Israeli infrastructure, leading to retaliatory airstrikes by Israel on targets within Gaza. This escalates into a larger conflict with potential for Hezbollah involvement and broader regional instability. * Increased rocket fire from Gaza towards Israeli cities. * Reports of civilian casualties in both Gaza and Israel due to increased violence. * Formal declaration of war by Iran or an allied group against Israel. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The current tensions remain high, with continued diplomatic efforts from international actors to deescalate the situation. However, a fragile peace remains precarious and susceptible to renewed violence, with both sides maintaining military readiness.