JPMorgan покупает долг с 15%-ной доходностью для буровой компании, получившей поддержку Трампа

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** JPMorgan's refinancing negotiations for Sable Offshore Corp. are met with strong investor resistance due to concerns about the oil driller's sustainability and Trump administration ties. This leads to a public backlash against JPMorgan, impacting their stock price and potentially triggering regulatory scrutiny. * **Confirmation indicators:** A significant drop in JPMorgan's share price within a week, followed by media coverage focusing on the refinancing negotiations and investor concerns. * **Time horizon:** 2-4 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The refinancing of Sable Offshore Corp.'s loan proceeds smoothly, with investors accepting the high interest rate due to a lack of alternative financing options for the oil driller and the perceived political risk. * **Confirmation indicators:** No sign

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** JPMorgan's refinancing negotiations for Sable Offshore Corp. are met with strong investor resistance due to concerns about the oil driller's sustainability and Trump administration ties. This leads to a public backlash against JPMorgan, impacting their stock price and potentially triggering regulatory scrutiny. * **Confirmation indicators:** A significant drop in JPMorgan's share price within a week, followed by media coverage focusing on the refinancing negotiations and investor concerns. * **Time horizon:** 2-4 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The refinancing of Sable Offshore Corp.'s loan proceeds smoothly, with investors accepting the high interest rate due to a lack of alternative financing options for the oil driller and the perceived political risk. * **Confirmation indicators:** No sign

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** JPMorgan's refinancing negotiations for Sable Offshore Corp. are met with strong investor resistance due to concerns about the oil driller's sustainability and Trump administration ties. This leads to a public backlash against JPMorgan, impacting their stock price and potentially triggering regulatory scrutiny. * **Confirmation indicators:** A significant drop in JPMorgan's share price within a week, followed by media coverage focusing on the refinancing negotiations and investor concerns. * **Time horizon:** 2-4 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The refinancing of Sable Offshore Corp.'s loan proceeds smoothly, with investors accepting the high interest rate due to a lack of alternative financing options for the oil driller and the perceived political risk. * **Confirmation indicators:** No sign