Наблюдатель ООН и западные страны призывают Иран возобновить ядерное сотрудничество

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran's refusal to cooperate with IAEA leads to increased sanctions from Western nations. US and E3 countries impose stricter economic restrictions on Iran, including asset freezes and trade embargoes. This could trigger an escalation in rhetoric from both sides, potentially leading to diplomatic tensions. * **Iranian nuclear program activity increases significantly.** Iran's enrichment of uranium levels rise above the agreed-upon limits. * **US imposes new sanctions on Iranian financial institutions and individuals.** Sanctions target key sectors like energy and banking. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline scenario:** IAEA continues to engage with Iran, seeking further clarification on uranium enrichment activities. Western nations maintain diplomatic pressure

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran's refusal to cooperate with IAEA leads to increased sanctions from Western nations. US and E3 countries impose stricter economic restrictions on Iran, including asset freezes and trade embargoes. This could trigger an escalation in rhetoric from both sides, potentially leading to diplomatic tensions. * **Iranian nuclear program activity increases significantly.** Iran's enrichment of uranium levels rise above the agreed-upon limits. * **US imposes new sanctions on Iranian financial institutions and individuals.** Sanctions target key sectors like energy and banking. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline scenario:** IAEA continues to engage with Iran, seeking further clarification on uranium enrichment activities. Western nations maintain diplomatic pressure

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran's refusal to cooperate with IAEA leads to increased sanctions from Western nations. US and E3 countries impose stricter economic restrictions on Iran, including asset freezes and trade embargoes. This could trigger an escalation in rhetoric from both sides, potentially leading to diplomatic tensions. * **Iranian nuclear program activity increases significantly.** Iran's enrichment of uranium levels rise above the agreed-upon limits. * **US imposes new sanctions on Iranian financial institutions and individuals.** Sanctions target key sectors like energy and banking. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline scenario:** IAEA continues to engage with Iran, seeking further clarification on uranium enrichment activities. Western nations maintain diplomatic pressure