«Я не гарантировал отсутствия войны»: Трамп отрицает обещание не допускать США к зарубежным войнам

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Trump's denial fuels international tensions and leads to increased military posturing by Russia and NATO allies. A series of diplomatic crises ensues, with heightened rhetoric from both sides. This culminates in a formal escalation as the US deploys additional troops to Eastern Europe. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) Increased Russian military exercises near Ukrainian border, 2) Public statements from Western leaders expressing concern over Trump's denial and calling for increased defense spending. 3) A NATO summit with heightened tensions and no concrete solutions. * **Time horizon:** X to Y days/weeks: 4-6 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The US maintains its current stance on foreign intervention, focusing on diplomacy and economic sanctions against Russia. The global community largely igno

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Trump's denial fuels international tensions and leads to increased military posturing by Russia and NATO allies. A series of diplomatic crises ensues, with heightened rhetoric from both sides. This culminates in a formal escalation as the US deploys additional troops to Eastern Europe. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) Increased Russian military exercises near Ukrainian border, 2) Public statements from Western leaders expressing concern over Trump's denial and calling for increased defense spending. 3) A NATO summit with heightened tensions and no concrete solutions. * **Time horizon:** X to Y days/weeks: 4-6 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The US maintains its current stance on foreign intervention, focusing on diplomacy and economic sanctions against Russia. The global community largely igno

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Trump's denial fuels international tensions and leads to increased military posturing by Russia and NATO allies. A series of diplomatic crises ensues, with heightened rhetoric from both sides. This culminates in a formal escalation as the US deploys additional troops to Eastern Europe. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) Increased Russian military exercises near Ukrainian border, 2) Public statements from Western leaders expressing concern over Trump's denial and calling for increased defense spending. 3) A NATO summit with heightened tensions and no concrete solutions. * **Time horizon:** X to Y days/weeks: 4-6 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The US maintains its current stance on foreign intervention, focusing on diplomacy and economic sanctions against Russia. The global community largely igno