Оппенгеймер: Трамп держит бразды правления вариантами эскалации Нетаньяху

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Netanyahu's escalation options are limited by Trump's reluctance to authorize significant military actions against Iran. This could lead to increased tensions, including heightened rhetoric and pressure on Iran from US allies. Israel might increase its own military activity near Iranian targets, with a focus on intelligence gathering and cyber operations. * **Confirmation indicators:** Netanyahu publicly announces a new escalation plan targeting Iranian nuclear facilities in the coming weeks. Trump approves a substantial arms sale to Israel, exceeding previous agreements. * **Time horizon:** 30-60 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The US and Israel maintain a cautious approach towards Iran, focusing on diplomatic channels and intelligence gathering. Netanyahu might continue to express concerns abou

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Netanyahu's escalation options are limited by Trump's reluctance to authorize significant military actions against Iran. This could lead to increased tensions, including heightened rhetoric and pressure on Iran from US allies. Israel might increase its own military activity near Iranian targets, with a focus on intelligence gathering and cyber operations. * **Confirmation indicators:** Netanyahu publicly announces a new escalation plan targeting Iranian nuclear facilities in the coming weeks. Trump approves a substantial arms sale to Israel, exceeding previous agreements. * **Time horizon:** 30-60 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The US and Israel maintain a cautious approach towards Iran, focusing on diplomatic channels and intelligence gathering. Netanyahu might continue to express concerns abou

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Netanyahu's escalation options are limited by Trump's reluctance to authorize significant military actions against Iran. This could lead to increased tensions, including heightened rhetoric and pressure on Iran from US allies. Israel might increase its own military activity near Iranian targets, with a focus on intelligence gathering and cyber operations. * **Confirmation indicators:** Netanyahu publicly announces a new escalation plan targeting Iranian nuclear facilities in the coming weeks. Trump approves a substantial arms sale to Israel, exceeding previous agreements. * **Time horizon:** 30-60 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The US and Israel maintain a cautious approach towards Iran, focusing on diplomatic channels and intelligence gathering. Netanyahu might continue to express concerns abou