Российский «Алмаз-Антей» продемонстрирует корабельные системы ПВО на военно-морском салоне «Флот-2026»

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** Russia's participation in Fleet 2026 with its advanced air defense systems will likely be interpreted as an escalation by Western powers, potentially leading to heightened tensions and increased military exercises. This could trigger a series of diplomatic escalations between Russia and the West, including sanctions discussions and potential arms embargoes. Within a week, NATO countries may hold joint military drills in response, with the US and UK likely leading the charge. This escalation could reach a boiling point within 3-4 weeks, potentially culminating in a public statement from the Russian Federation outlining its intentions for increased military presence in the region. * Public statements by NATO members expressing concern about Russia's participation in Fleet 2026 and potential for escala

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** Russia's participation in Fleet 2026 with its advanced air defense systems will likely be interpreted as an escalation by Western powers, potentially leading to heightened tensions and increased military exercises. This could trigger a series of diplomatic escalations between Russia and the West, including sanctions discussions and potential arms embargoes. Within a week, NATO countries may hold joint military drills in response, with the US and UK likely leading the charge. This escalation could reach a boiling point within 3-4 weeks, potentially culminating in a public statement from the Russian Federation outlining its intentions for increased military presence in the region. * Public statements by NATO members expressing concern about Russia's participation in Fleet 2026 and potential for escala

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** Russia's participation in Fleet 2026 with its advanced air defense systems will likely be interpreted as an escalation by Western powers, potentially leading to heightened tensions and increased military exercises. This could trigger a series of diplomatic escalations between Russia and the West, including sanctions discussions and potential arms embargoes. Within a week, NATO countries may hold joint military drills in response, with the US and UK likely leading the charge. This escalation could reach a boiling point within 3-4 weeks, potentially culminating in a public statement from the Russian Federation outlining its intentions for increased military presence in the region. * Public statements by NATO members expressing concern about Russia's participation in Fleet 2026 and potential for escala