Солдаты , а не переговоры будут решать войну России на Украине , говорит Лавров

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia's military actions in Ukraine escalate beyond current levels, with increased troop deployments and intensified offensive operations. This leads to a direct confrontation between Russian forces and Ukrainian defenders, potentially involving artillery strikes and air raids. The escalation could be triggered by a perceived failure of diplomatic efforts or an increase in casualties on either side. * A significant spike in military activity near the front lines with increased troop deployment and combat maneuvers. * Reports of intensified shelling and targeted attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. * A noticeable escalation in the use of drones and other offensive weapons systems by both sides. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline scenario:** The conflict continues with

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia's military actions in Ukraine escalate beyond current levels, with increased troop deployments and intensified offensive operations. This leads to a direct confrontation between Russian forces and Ukrainian defenders, potentially involving artillery strikes and air raids. The escalation could be triggered by a perceived failure of diplomatic efforts or an increase in casualties on either side. * A significant spike in military activity near the front lines with increased troop deployment and combat maneuvers. * Reports of intensified shelling and targeted attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. * A noticeable escalation in the use of drones and other offensive weapons systems by both sides. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline scenario:** The conflict continues with

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia's military actions in Ukraine escalate beyond current levels, with increased troop deployments and intensified offensive operations. This leads to a direct confrontation between Russian forces and Ukrainian defenders, potentially involving artillery strikes and air raids. The escalation could be triggered by a perceived failure of diplomatic efforts or an increase in casualties on either side. * A significant spike in military activity near the front lines with increased troop deployment and combat maneuvers. * Reports of intensified shelling and targeted attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. * A noticeable escalation in the use of drones and other offensive weapons systems by both sides. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline scenario:** The conflict continues with