AI Mania демонстрирует трещины на фоне распродаж в Азии и резкого роста военных рисков | Инсайт с Хаслиндой Амин 08.06.2026

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Rising geopolitical tensions in Asia trigger a renewed focus on military preparedness and increased risk aversion by investors globally. This leads to a spike in defense spending and arms sales, followed by a surge in volatility across global markets. * **Confirmation Indicators:** 1) A formal declaration of heightened military activity between China and Japan within the next week. 2) A significant increase in the volume of geopolitical conflict-related news coverage on Bloomberg Markets within the next two days. * **Time Horizon:** Within a month. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The AI frenzy continues, with advancements in generative AI and machine learning driving innovation across industries. Despite concerns about job displacement, the focus remains on technological progress and economic growth.

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Rising geopolitical tensions in Asia trigger a renewed focus on military preparedness and increased risk aversion by investors globally. This leads to a spike in defense spending and arms sales, followed by a surge in volatility across global markets. * **Confirmation Indicators:** 1) A formal declaration of heightened military activity between China and Japan within the next week. 2) A significant increase in the volume of geopolitical conflict-related news coverage on Bloomberg Markets within the next two days. * **Time Horizon:** Within a month. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The AI frenzy continues, with advancements in generative AI and machine learning driving innovation across industries. Despite concerns about job displacement, the focus remains on technological progress and economic growth.

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Rising geopolitical tensions in Asia trigger a renewed focus on military preparedness and increased risk aversion by investors globally. This leads to a spike in defense spending and arms sales, followed by a surge in volatility across global markets. * **Confirmation Indicators:** 1) A formal declaration of heightened military activity between China and Japan within the next week. 2) A significant increase in the volume of geopolitical conflict-related news coverage on Bloomberg Markets within the next two days. * **Time Horizon:** Within a month. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The AI frenzy continues, with advancements in generative AI and machine learning driving innovation across industries. Despite concerns about job displacement, the focus remains on technological progress and economic growth.