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geopolitical··severity 8

10 акций упали на 50% всего за 100 дней американо-иранской войны. У вас есть какой-нибудь?

Индийский фондовый рынок стал свидетелем резкой коррекции после эскалации конфликта между Ираном, США и Израилем в конце февраля, когда индекс Nifty 50 упал более чем на 7%. Несколько акций компаний со средней и большой капитализацией сильно пострадали: некоторые из них потеряли до 50% своей стоимости всего за 100 дней на фоне повышенной неопределенности и опасений, связанных с конкретным сектором.

Сценарии цепочки

A

Escalation

50%

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** **Chain:** US-Iran conflict escalates with increased military action and heightened rhetoric, leading to global market volatility. This triggers a cascade effect of panic selling across sectors, particularly energy, defense, and technology. The initial crash in the US stock market spreads globally, impacting emerging markets like India. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** **Chain:** The escalation is contained through diplomatic efforts and international pressure. Negotiations between the US and Iran lead to a temporary ceasefire in the conflict, followed by a gradual easing of sanctions. Market volatility subsides as investors anticipate a return to normalcy.

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased tensions between the US and Iran, escalation of military action by either side.
B

Status Quo

38%

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** **Chain:** US-Iran conflict escalates with increased military action and heightened rhetoric, leading to global market volatility. This triggers a cascade effect of panic selling across sectors, particularly energy, defense, and technology. The initial crash in the US stock market spreads globally, impacting emerging markets like India. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** **Chain:** The escalation is contained through diplomatic efforts and international pressure. Negotiations between the US and Iran lead to a temporary ceasefire in the conflict, followed by a gradual easing of sanctions. Market volatility subsides as investors anticipate a return to normalcy.

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased tensions between the US and Iran, escalation of military action by either side.
C

De-escalation

13%

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** **Chain:** US-Iran conflict escalates with increased military action and heightened rhetoric, leading to global market volatility. This triggers a cascade effect of panic selling across sectors, particularly energy, defense, and technology. The initial crash in the US stock market spreads globally, impacting emerging markets like India. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** **Chain:** The escalation is contained through diplomatic efforts and international pressure. Negotiations between the US and Iran lead to a temporary ceasefire in the conflict, followed by a gradual easing of sanctions. Market volatility subsides as investors anticipate a return to normalcy.

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased tensions between the US and Iran, escalation of military action by either side.

Первичный источник: Economic Times

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