Пакистанский Шариф предупреждает о «невыносимых последствиях» эскалации
Пакистанский Шариф предупреждает о «невыносимых последствиях» в условиях эскалации Премьер-министр Пакистана Шехбаз Шариф призвал «все стороны проявлять сдержанность и дать миру немного больше шансов» после недавней эскалации между Израилем и Ираном. «Недавний всплеск насилия на Ближнем Востоке является ярким напоминанием об опасностях, связанных с хрупким прекращением огня, и о невыносимых последствиях, к которым оно может привести», — сказал Шариф в заявлении на X. «Давайте продолжим оставаться на пути мира и дипломатии, который имеет блестящие перспективы успеха вместо насилия и разрушения», — добавил он. Пакистан позиционирует себя как посредник между США и Ираном, в то время как его попытки миротворчества посредством перемирия недавно потерпели крах.
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel and Iran escalate military action, with increased targeting of civilian infrastructure in both countries. Tensions rise between Pakistan and other regional powers, leading to a potential military response from India or China. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Significant increase in casualties on both sides (e.g., 50+ deaths in one day), escalation of rhetoric by leaders on both sides, heightened activity from proxy groups in the region. * **Time Horizon:** Within 1-2 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** International diplomatic efforts, facilitated by Pakistan and other neutral countries, focus on maintaining a fragile ceasefire. The US and Iran continue to engage in indirect negotiations with limited progress. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Continued dialogue between the US and Iran through
Status Quo
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel and Iran escalate military action, with increased targeting of civilian infrastructure in both countries. Tensions rise between Pakistan and other regional powers, leading to a potential military response from India or China. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Significant increase in casualties on both sides (e.g., 50+ deaths in one day), escalation of rhetoric by leaders on both sides, heightened activity from proxy groups in the region. * **Time Horizon:** Within 1-2 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** International diplomatic efforts, facilitated by Pakistan and other neutral countries, focus on maintaining a fragile ceasefire. The US and Iran continue to engage in indirect negotiations with limited progress. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Continued dialogue between the US and Iran through
De-escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel and Iran escalate military action, with increased targeting of civilian infrastructure in both countries. Tensions rise between Pakistan and other regional powers, leading to a potential military response from India or China. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Significant increase in casualties on both sides (e.g., 50+ deaths in one day), escalation of rhetoric by leaders on both sides, heightened activity from proxy groups in the region. * **Time Horizon:** Within 1-2 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** International diplomatic efforts, facilitated by Pakistan and other neutral countries, focus on maintaining a fragile ceasefire. The US and Iran continue to engage in indirect negotiations with limited progress. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Continued dialogue between the US and Iran through
Первичный источник: Middle East Eye
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