Израиль и Иран, похоже, приостановили удары после перестрелки впервые после прекращения огня
Израиль и Иран, похоже, отказались от дальнейших ударов в понедельник, спустя несколько часов после того, как они перестрелялись впервые с тех пор, как США договорились о прекращении огня с Тегераном два месяца назад. Обе страны предупредили, что готовы нанести ответный удар, если их спровоцируют. Возобновление боевых действий вызвало опасения, что Ближний Восток может снова погрузиться в полномасштабную войну. С тех пор как США и Израиль 28 февраля начали наносить удары по Ирану, война потрясла мировую экономику, подняв цены на энергоносители примерно до...
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel launches retaliatory airstrikes against Iranian targets within 48 hours following increased activity from Iranian proxies in the region. The US condemns the attack, escalating tensions further. This triggers a series of regional military build-ups by neighboring countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE, increasing the risk of conflict escalation. * Footage of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets released by Israeli defense ministry. * Public statements from US officials condemning the attacks as "unacceptable" with specific mention of potential retaliation. * Increased military presence in the region by Saudi Arabia and UAE, including increased troop deployments and air force activity. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The current ceasefire between Israel and Iran
Status Quo
## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel launches retaliatory airstrikes against Iranian targets within 48 hours following increased activity from Iranian proxies in the region. The US condemns the attack, escalating tensions further. This triggers a series of regional military build-ups by neighboring countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE, increasing the risk of conflict escalation. * Footage of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets released by Israeli defense ministry. * Public statements from US officials condemning the attacks as "unacceptable" with specific mention of potential retaliation. * Increased military presence in the region by Saudi Arabia and UAE, including increased troop deployments and air force activity. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The current ceasefire between Israel and Iran
De-escalation
## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Israel launches retaliatory airstrikes against Iranian targets within 48 hours following increased activity from Iranian proxies in the region. The US condemns the attack, escalating tensions further. This triggers a series of regional military build-ups by neighboring countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE, increasing the risk of conflict escalation. * Footage of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets released by Israeli defense ministry. * Public statements from US officials condemning the attacks as "unacceptable" with specific mention of potential retaliation. * Increased military presence in the region by Saudi Arabia and UAE, including increased troop deployments and air force activity. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The current ceasefire between Israel and Iran
Первичный источник: South China Morning Post
Хотите получать такие сценарии в email или Telegram до публикации в каталоге?
Тарифы и подписки →