Экс-глава юстиции Кении арестован во время протеста против строительства национального парка

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** **Chain:** The arrest at the protest triggers increased tensions between activists and the government. Protests escalate into nationwide demonstrations demanding the cancellation of the development project. The Kenyan government, under pressure from both sides, may respond with stricter regulations on protests or increase security measures in areas where protests are likely to occur. This could lead to a rise in political instability and potentially disrupt economic activity. * Increased media coverage of protest activities with calls for action. * Government issuing statements condemning the protestors' actions. * Reports of police using force against protesters, leading to injuries or deaths. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** **Chain:** The government maintains its

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** **Chain:** The arrest at the protest triggers increased tensions between activists and the government. Protests escalate into nationwide demonstrations demanding the cancellation of the development project. The Kenyan government, under pressure from both sides, may respond with stricter regulations on protests or increase security measures in areas where protests are likely to occur. This could lead to a rise in political instability and potentially disrupt economic activity. * Increased media coverage of protest activities with calls for action. * Government issuing statements condemning the protestors' actions. * Reports of police using force against protesters, leading to injuries or deaths. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** **Chain:** The government maintains its

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** **Chain:** The arrest at the protest triggers increased tensions between activists and the government. Protests escalate into nationwide demonstrations demanding the cancellation of the development project. The Kenyan government, under pressure from both sides, may respond with stricter regulations on protests or increase security measures in areas where protests are likely to occur. This could lead to a rise in political instability and potentially disrupt economic activity. * Increased media coverage of protest activities with calls for action. * Government issuing statements condemning the protestors' actions. * Reports of police using force against protesters, leading to injuries or deaths. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** **Chain:** The government maintains its