Иран прекращает удары по Израилю, Нетаньяху застрял между Трампом и министрами

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel retaliates against Hezbollah with air strikes, Iran responds with increased missile attacks on Israel and potentially targets US-allied countries in the region. This escalation could trigger a wider regional conflict involving Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. * **Confirmation indicators:** Reports of Israeli air strikes targeting Hezbollah positions within Lebanon, Iranian military officials issuing statements confirming retaliation against Israel and the US, and increased tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia. * **Time horizon:** 10-20 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The ceasefire remains intact, with Hezbollah continuing to strike Israeli targets while Iran maintains a cautious stance. Tensions remain high, potentially leading to diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation. * *

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel retaliates against Hezbollah with air strikes, Iran responds with increased missile attacks on Israel and potentially targets US-allied countries in the region. This escalation could trigger a wider regional conflict involving Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. * **Confirmation indicators:** Reports of Israeli air strikes targeting Hezbollah positions within Lebanon, Iranian military officials issuing statements confirming retaliation against Israel and the US, and increased tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia. * **Time horizon:** 10-20 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The ceasefire remains intact, with Hezbollah continuing to strike Israeli targets while Iran maintains a cautious stance. Tensions remain high, potentially leading to diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation. * *

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel retaliates against Hezbollah with air strikes, Iran responds with increased missile attacks on Israel and potentially targets US-allied countries in the region. This escalation could trigger a wider regional conflict involving Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. * **Confirmation indicators:** Reports of Israeli air strikes targeting Hezbollah positions within Lebanon, Iranian military officials issuing statements confirming retaliation against Israel and the US, and increased tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia. * **Time horizon:** 10-20 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The ceasefire remains intact, with Hezbollah continuing to strike Israeli targets while Iran maintains a cautious stance. Tensions remain high, potentially leading to diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation. * *