США и союзники продвигают гражданский путь в Судане

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** US and allies pressure Sudan's civilian government to take decisive action against armed factions while simultaneously increasing military support for their own proxy forces. This could lead to escalating clashes between these groups, potentially resulting in a humanitarian crisis within Sudan. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Public statements from key international officials expressing strong condemnation of the violence and calls for immediate action. Reports of increased US military presence near Sudan's borders with neighboring countries. * **Time Horizon:** 2-4 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Baseline:** The conflict in Sudan continues, but international pressure remains focused on de-escalation and humanitarian aid delivery. A fragile ceasefire is maintained, with both sides engaging in limited nego

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** US and allies pressure Sudan's civilian government to take decisive action against armed factions while simultaneously increasing military support for their own proxy forces. This could lead to escalating clashes between these groups, potentially resulting in a humanitarian crisis within Sudan. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Public statements from key international officials expressing strong condemnation of the violence and calls for immediate action. Reports of increased US military presence near Sudan's borders with neighboring countries. * **Time Horizon:** 2-4 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Baseline:** The conflict in Sudan continues, but international pressure remains focused on de-escalation and humanitarian aid delivery. A fragile ceasefire is maintained, with both sides engaging in limited nego

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** US and allies pressure Sudan's civilian government to take decisive action against armed factions while simultaneously increasing military support for their own proxy forces. This could lead to escalating clashes between these groups, potentially resulting in a humanitarian crisis within Sudan. * **Confirmation Indicators:** Public statements from key international officials expressing strong condemnation of the violence and calls for immediate action. Reports of increased US military presence near Sudan's borders with neighboring countries. * **Time Horizon:** 2-4 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Baseline:** The conflict in Sudan continues, but international pressure remains focused on de-escalation and humanitarian aid delivery. A fragile ceasefire is maintained, with both sides engaging in limited nego