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geopolitical··severity 8

КСИР заявил, что нанес удар по израильским авиабазам в ответ

Корпус стражей исламской революции (КСИР) заявил, что нанес удары по израильским авиабазам Неватим и Тель-Ноф, назвав операцию ответом на недавние израильские удары по радиолокационным установкам внутри Ирана. В заявлении КСИР говорится, что атаки были совершены через несколько минут после того, как израильские силы атаковали радиолокационные объекты в трех районах страны.

Сценарии цепочки

A

Escalation

50%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** 1) IRGC's retaliation against Israeli air bases triggers heightened tensions between Iran and Israel. 2) This escalates into an exchange of further strikes, potentially targeting strategic infrastructure in both countries. 3) Regional powers like Russia and China may attempt to mediate but face difficulty due to existing geopolitical complexities. **Time horizon:** 1-2 weeks ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** 1) The IRGC's statement about retaliation is met with a measured response from Israel, focusing on internal security measures and diplomatic ef

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** 1) Increased rhetoric from Iranian officials regarding further action. 2) Reports of increased military activity in the region, including air patrols or missile tests by both sides. 3) Confirmation of Israeli retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets., ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%
B

Status Quo

38%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** 1) IRGC's retaliation against Israeli air bases triggers heightened tensions between Iran and Israel. 2) This escalates into an exchange of further strikes, potentially targeting strategic infrastructure in both countries. 3) Regional powers like Russia and China may attempt to mediate but face difficulty due to existing geopolitical complexities. **Time horizon:** 1-2 weeks ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** 1) The IRGC's statement about retaliation is met with a measured response from Israel, focusing on internal security measures and diplomatic ef

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** 1) Increased rhetoric from Iranian officials regarding further action. 2) Reports of increased military activity in the region, including air patrols or missile tests by both sides. 3) Confirmation of Israeli retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets., ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%
C

De-escalation

13%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** 1) IRGC's retaliation against Israeli air bases triggers heightened tensions between Iran and Israel. 2) This escalates into an exchange of further strikes, potentially targeting strategic infrastructure in both countries. 3) Regional powers like Russia and China may attempt to mediate but face difficulty due to existing geopolitical complexities. **Time horizon:** 1-2 weeks ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** 1) The IRGC's statement about retaliation is met with a measured response from Israel, focusing on internal security measures and diplomatic ef

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** 1) Increased rhetoric from Iranian officials regarding further action. 2) Reports of increased military activity in the region, including air patrols or missile tests by both sides. 3) Confirmation of Israeli retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets., ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%

Первичный источник: Middle East Eye

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