Кто командует? Трамп пытается обуздать Нетаньяху и спасти сделку с Ираном
Он верил тем, кто настаивал на том, что он сможет завершить все это к концу марта, задолго до ноябрьских промежуточных выборов. В противном случае съезд будет легко найти. Но учитывал ли Дональд Трамп, что его главный союзник в войне против Ирана тоже готовится к предвыборной кампании? Биньямин Нетаньяху баллотируется на переизбрание.
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Trump's attempts to rein in Netanyahu on Iran deal face resistance from both within the US government and from Israel's hawkish coalition. This leads to a public spat between Trump and Netanyahu, escalating into a diplomatic crisis. The situation deteriorates when Israel decides to increase military activity near Iranian borders, potentially leading to an escalation of tensions. * Public statements from administration officials indicating increasing tension with Israel. * Reports of increased military deployments in the region by Israeli forces. * A formal statement from the US government regarding a potential diplomatic incident. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Trump's efforts to influence the Iran deal remain largely stalled, with both Netanyahu and other key pl
Status Quo
## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Trump's attempts to rein in Netanyahu on Iran deal face resistance from both within the US government and from Israel's hawkish coalition. This leads to a public spat between Trump and Netanyahu, escalating into a diplomatic crisis. The situation deteriorates when Israel decides to increase military activity near Iranian borders, potentially leading to an escalation of tensions. * Public statements from administration officials indicating increasing tension with Israel. * Reports of increased military deployments in the region by Israeli forces. * A formal statement from the US government regarding a potential diplomatic incident. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Trump's efforts to influence the Iran deal remain largely stalled, with both Netanyahu and other key pl
De-escalation
## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Trump's attempts to rein in Netanyahu on Iran deal face resistance from both within the US government and from Israel's hawkish coalition. This leads to a public spat between Trump and Netanyahu, escalating into a diplomatic crisis. The situation deteriorates when Israel decides to increase military activity near Iranian borders, potentially leading to an escalation of tensions. * Public statements from administration officials indicating increasing tension with Israel. * Reports of increased military deployments in the region by Israeli forces. * A formal statement from the US government regarding a potential diplomatic incident. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** Trump's efforts to influence the Iran deal remain largely stalled, with both Netanyahu and other key pl
Первичный источник: France24
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