Трамп настаивает на том, чтобы Иран и Израиль могли атаковать и твердо заявили, что смогут немедленно подняться на высоту аль-Фуэго.

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Trump's demand for immediate ceasefire from Iran and Israel triggers heightened tensions in the region. This leads to increased military deployments by both sides, with a risk of direct conflict escalation. A diplomatic breakthrough seems unlikely within the next week. * **Confirmation indicators:** Public statements from Iranian and Israeli leaders expressing defiance towards Trump's demands; Increased military activity near borders between Iran and Israel, including air patrols and missile tests. * **Time horizon:** Escalation could occur in the following two to three weeks, with potential for a direct confrontation within that timeframe. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The situation remains tense but does not escalate into conflict. Trump's demands are met with diplomatic efforts by both Iran and

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Trump's demand for immediate ceasefire from Iran and Israel triggers heightened tensions in the region. This leads to increased military deployments by both sides, with a risk of direct conflict escalation. A diplomatic breakthrough seems unlikely within the next week. * **Confirmation indicators:** Public statements from Iranian and Israeli leaders expressing defiance towards Trump's demands; Increased military activity near borders between Iran and Israel, including air patrols and missile tests. * **Time horizon:** Escalation could occur in the following two to three weeks, with potential for a direct confrontation within that timeframe. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The situation remains tense but does not escalate into conflict. Trump's demands are met with diplomatic efforts by both Iran and

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Trump's demand for immediate ceasefire from Iran and Israel triggers heightened tensions in the region. This leads to increased military deployments by both sides, with a risk of direct conflict escalation. A diplomatic breakthrough seems unlikely within the next week. * **Confirmation indicators:** Public statements from Iranian and Israeli leaders expressing defiance towards Trump's demands; Increased military activity near borders between Iran and Israel, including air patrols and missile tests. * **Time horizon:** Escalation could occur in the following two to three weeks, with potential for a direct confrontation within that timeframe. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The situation remains tense but does not escalate into conflict. Trump's demands are met with diplomatic efforts by both Iran and