Как запуски ракет «Хезболлы» из Ливана поставили под угрозу прекращение огня между Израилем и Ираном

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** Hezbollah's missile launches from Lebanon could escalate into a larger conflict with Israel. Within **7 days**, these launches could trigger retaliatory airstrikes by Israel, potentially targeting Hezbollah positions in Lebanon and possibly escalating to a wider regional conflict. This escalation would likely involve increased military activity between Israel and Hezbollah, with potential for the involvement of other actors like Iran or Syria. * Israel launches airstrikes on Hezbollah targets within Lebanon. * Iran issues public statements expressing support for Hezbollah. * Regional tensions escalate with heightened rhetoric from various countries. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** The current ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah remains fragile, but

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** Hezbollah's missile launches from Lebanon could escalate into a larger conflict with Israel. Within **7 days**, these launches could trigger retaliatory airstrikes by Israel, potentially targeting Hezbollah positions in Lebanon and possibly escalating to a wider regional conflict. This escalation would likely involve increased military activity between Israel and Hezbollah, with potential for the involvement of other actors like Iran or Syria. * Israel launches airstrikes on Hezbollah targets within Lebanon. * Iran issues public statements expressing support for Hezbollah. * Regional tensions escalate with heightened rhetoric from various countries. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** The current ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah remains fragile, but

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** Hezbollah's missile launches from Lebanon could escalate into a larger conflict with Israel. Within **7 days**, these launches could trigger retaliatory airstrikes by Israel, potentially targeting Hezbollah positions in Lebanon and possibly escalating to a wider regional conflict. This escalation would likely involve increased military activity between Israel and Hezbollah, with potential for the involvement of other actors like Iran or Syria. * Israel launches airstrikes on Hezbollah targets within Lebanon. * Iran issues public statements expressing support for Hezbollah. * Regional tensions escalate with heightened rhetoric from various countries. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** The current ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah remains fragile, but