Глава ОЭСР призывает правительства не действовать в одиночку в вопросах цифрового налогообложения

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** OECD's call for global digital taxation leads to increased tensions between tech giants and governments. Several countries, particularly those with large tech industries, begin imposing their own unilateral taxes on US-based companies. This creates a legal battleground as the OECD seeks to maintain its influence and enforce international agreements. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) The OECD releases an official statement outlining potential legal action against countries implementing unilateral digital taxes. 2) A major tech company publicly criticizes the OECD's stance, accusing them of undermining global cooperation on taxation. * **Time horizon:** X days to 4 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The OECD chief's call for a coordinated approach is largely ignored as governments prioritize their

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** OECD's call for global digital taxation leads to increased tensions between tech giants and governments. Several countries, particularly those with large tech industries, begin imposing their own unilateral taxes on US-based companies. This creates a legal battleground as the OECD seeks to maintain its influence and enforce international agreements. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) The OECD releases an official statement outlining potential legal action against countries implementing unilateral digital taxes. 2) A major tech company publicly criticizes the OECD's stance, accusing them of undermining global cooperation on taxation. * **Time horizon:** X days to 4 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The OECD chief's call for a coordinated approach is largely ignored as governments prioritize their

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** OECD's call for global digital taxation leads to increased tensions between tech giants and governments. Several countries, particularly those with large tech industries, begin imposing their own unilateral taxes on US-based companies. This creates a legal battleground as the OECD seeks to maintain its influence and enforce international agreements. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) The OECD releases an official statement outlining potential legal action against countries implementing unilateral digital taxes. 2) A major tech company publicly criticizes the OECD's stance, accusing them of undermining global cooperation on taxation. * **Time horizon:** X days to 4 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The OECD chief's call for a coordinated approach is largely ignored as governments prioritize their