Дроны нанесли удар по нефтяному терминалу Шесхарис в Новороссийске, в… — прогноз цепочек

A

Escalation

50%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia's response to the attack will likely involve increased military activity in the Black Sea region. This could include: * **Day 1-3:** Increased naval patrols and air surveillance near Novorossiysk, potentially escalating to missile strikes on Ukrainian drones or infrastructure. * **Day 4-7:** Russia may deploy additional troops and equipment to the border, increasing tensions with Ukraine. * **Week 2:** A potential escalation of hostilities could include a full-scale Russian military operation in the region, targeting Ukrainian naval assets or further attacks on civilian infrastructure. ##

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased activity from Russian military vessels near Novorossiysk, including missile launches and increased air traffic. Russian government statements indicating heightened military readiness and threat assessment., ##

B

Status Quo

38%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia's response to the attack will likely involve increased military activity in the Black Sea region. This could include: * **Day 1-3:** Increased naval patrols and air surveillance near Novorossiysk, potentially escalating to missile strikes on Ukrainian drones or infrastructure. * **Day 4-7:** Russia may deploy additional troops and equipment to the border, increasing tensions with Ukraine. * **Week 2:** A potential escalation of hostilities could include a full-scale Russian military operation in the region, targeting Ukrainian naval assets or further attacks on civilian infrastructure. ##

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased activity from Russian military vessels near Novorossiysk, including missile launches and increased air traffic. Russian government statements indicating heightened military readiness and threat assessment., ##

C

De-escalation

13%

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Russia's response to the attack will likely involve increased military activity in the Black Sea region. This could include: * **Day 1-3:** Increased naval patrols and air surveillance near Novorossiysk, potentially escalating to missile strikes on Ukrainian drones or infrastructure. * **Day 4-7:** Russia may deploy additional troops and equipment to the border, increasing tensions with Ukraine. * **Week 2:** A potential escalation of hostilities could include a full-scale Russian military operation in the region, targeting Ukrainian naval assets or further attacks on civilian infrastructure. ##

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased activity from Russian military vessels near Novorossiysk, including missile launches and increased air traffic. Russian government statements indicating heightened military readiness and threat assessment., ##

Дроны нанесли удар по нефтяному терминалу Шесхарис в Новороссийске, вызвав взрывы и пожары – фото, видео

Сценарии цепочки

Escalation

Status Quo

De-escalation