Трамп: Иран и Израиль муссен в Ангриффе «Sofort Beden»

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Trump's statements could lead to increased tensions between Israel and Iran, possibly escalating into direct military action. Israel might increase its military presence near Iranian borders, while Iran may respond with heightened rhetoric or even retaliatory attacks. This escalation could trigger a regional arms race and potentially draw in other countries like the US or Saudi Arabia. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline scenario:** The current tensions between Israel and Iran remain largely unresolved. Diplomatic efforts continue to be pursued to de-escalate the situation, but progress is slow.

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Trump's statements could lead to increased tensions between Israel and Iran, possibly escalating into direct military action. Israel might increase its military presence near Iranian borders, while Iran may respond with heightened rhetoric or even retaliatory attacks. This escalation could trigger a regional arms race and potentially draw in other countries like the US or Saudi Arabia. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline scenario:** The current tensions between Israel and Iran remain largely unresolved. Diplomatic efforts continue to be pursued to de-escalate the situation, but progress is slow.

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Trump's statements could lead to increased tensions between Israel and Iran, possibly escalating into direct military action. Israel might increase its military presence near Iranian borders, while Iran may respond with heightened rhetoric or even retaliatory attacks. This escalation could trigger a regional arms race and potentially draw in other countries like the US or Saudi Arabia. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Baseline scenario:** The current tensions between Israel and Iran remain largely unresolved. Diplomatic efforts continue to be pursued to de-escalate the situation, but progress is slow.