Axelrod's Oracle
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geopolitical··severity 9

Иран и Израиль обещают прекратить нападения, которые угрожают переговорам

Хизер Конли, старший научный сотрудник-нерезидент Американского института предпринимательства, присоединилась к обсуждению недавней эскалации в Иране, а также развития войны на Украине. Она сказала, что, несмотря на военные победы Украины, она ожидает, что Путин будет продолжать войну дорогой ценой. (Источник: Блумберг)

Сценарии цепочки

A

Escalation

50%

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** **Chain:** Iran and Israel escalate military actions against each other, leading to increased regional tensions. This escalation could include targeted strikes on key infrastructure or an increase in proxy conflict activity. The escalation may trigger a wider regional response from countries like Saudi Arabia and Turkey, potentially leading to a more direct confrontation between Iran and the US. * Increased military activity along the Israel-Iran border. * Reports of civilian casualties or targeted attacks on key infrastructure. * Diplomatic efforts to deescalate fail, with increased rhetoric from both sides. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** **Chain:** The current state of affairs continues, with Iran and Israel maintaining a cautious approach towards each o

Индикаторы подтверждения: **, * Increased military activity along the Israel, Iran border., * Reports of civilian casualties or targeted attacks on key infrastructure., * Diplomatic efforts to deescalate fail, with increased rhetoric from both sides.
B

Status Quo

38%

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** **Chain:** Iran and Israel escalate military actions against each other, leading to increased regional tensions. This escalation could include targeted strikes on key infrastructure or an increase in proxy conflict activity. The escalation may trigger a wider regional response from countries like Saudi Arabia and Turkey, potentially leading to a more direct confrontation between Iran and the US. * Increased military activity along the Israel-Iran border. * Reports of civilian casualties or targeted attacks on key infrastructure. * Diplomatic efforts to deescalate fail, with increased rhetoric from both sides. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** **Chain:** The current state of affairs continues, with Iran and Israel maintaining a cautious approach towards each o

Индикаторы подтверждения: **, * Increased military activity along the Israel, Iran border., * Reports of civilian casualties or targeted attacks on key infrastructure., * Diplomatic efforts to deescalate fail, with increased rhetoric from both sides.
C

De-escalation

13%

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** **Chain:** Iran and Israel escalate military actions against each other, leading to increased regional tensions. This escalation could include targeted strikes on key infrastructure or an increase in proxy conflict activity. The escalation may trigger a wider regional response from countries like Saudi Arabia and Turkey, potentially leading to a more direct confrontation between Iran and the US. * Increased military activity along the Israel-Iran border. * Reports of civilian casualties or targeted attacks on key infrastructure. * Diplomatic efforts to deescalate fail, with increased rhetoric from both sides. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** **Chain:** The current state of affairs continues, with Iran and Israel maintaining a cautious approach towards each o

Индикаторы подтверждения: **, * Increased military activity along the Israel, Iran border., * Reports of civilian casualties or targeted attacks on key infrastructure., * Diplomatic efforts to deescalate fail, with increased rhetoric from both sides.

Первичный источник: Bloomberg Markets

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