Техасские газовые бурильщики перестают участвовать в росте цен на нефть и перекрывают скважины

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Texas drillers face increasing pressure from customers demanding natural gas price adjustments as demand surges in the wake of the Iran war-induced energy crisis. This leads to a cascade effect where drillers struggle to maintain profitability, leading to increased debt and potential bankruptcies. * **Confirmation Indicators:** 1) A sharp increase in Texas well shutdowns exceeding historical averages. 2) Public statements from major gas producers expressing financial strain due to price pressure. * **Time Horizon:** 3-6 months **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The current market imbalance between high oil prices and low natural gas prices persists, with drillers adapting by reducing production of natural gas while maintaining a steady supply of oil. This leads to increased pressure on the Texas gov

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Texas drillers face increasing pressure from customers demanding natural gas price adjustments as demand surges in the wake of the Iran war-induced energy crisis. This leads to a cascade effect where drillers struggle to maintain profitability, leading to increased debt and potential bankruptcies. * **Confirmation Indicators:** 1) A sharp increase in Texas well shutdowns exceeding historical averages. 2) Public statements from major gas producers expressing financial strain due to price pressure. * **Time Horizon:** 3-6 months **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The current market imbalance between high oil prices and low natural gas prices persists, with drillers adapting by reducing production of natural gas while maintaining a steady supply of oil. This leads to increased pressure on the Texas gov

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Texas drillers face increasing pressure from customers demanding natural gas price adjustments as demand surges in the wake of the Iran war-induced energy crisis. This leads to a cascade effect where drillers struggle to maintain profitability, leading to increased debt and potential bankruptcies. * **Confirmation Indicators:** 1) A sharp increase in Texas well shutdowns exceeding historical averages. 2) Public statements from major gas producers expressing financial strain due to price pressure. * **Time Horizon:** 3-6 months **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** The current market imbalance between high oil prices and low natural gas prices persists, with drillers adapting by reducing production of natural gas while maintaining a steady supply of oil. This leads to increased pressure on the Texas gov