Израильская армия объявила о завершении масштабного удара по Ирану

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps issues retaliatory strikes against Israeli targets in retaliation for the airstrikes on their military infrastructure. This leads to increased tensions between Israel and Iran, potentially escalating into a broader regional conflict involving proxy forces and international actors. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) Iranian missile strikes targeting Israeli civilian infrastructure (e.g., ports, power grids) within 72 hours; 2) Increased activity of Hezbollah in Lebanon, with potential for cross-border attacks on Israel within 48 hours. * **Time horizon:** Escalation is likely to occur within a week to two weeks, leading to a heightened state of tension and increased risk of wider conflict. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The Israeli military's announcement about the stri

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps issues retaliatory strikes against Israeli targets in retaliation for the airstrikes on their military infrastructure. This leads to increased tensions between Israel and Iran, potentially escalating into a broader regional conflict involving proxy forces and international actors. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) Iranian missile strikes targeting Israeli civilian infrastructure (e.g., ports, power grids) within 72 hours; 2) Increased activity of Hezbollah in Lebanon, with potential for cross-border attacks on Israel within 48 hours. * **Time horizon:** Escalation is likely to occur within a week to two weeks, leading to a heightened state of tension and increased risk of wider conflict. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The Israeli military's announcement about the stri

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps issues retaliatory strikes against Israeli targets in retaliation for the airstrikes on their military infrastructure. This leads to increased tensions between Israel and Iran, potentially escalating into a broader regional conflict involving proxy forces and international actors. * **Confirmation indicators:** 1) Iranian missile strikes targeting Israeli civilian infrastructure (e.g., ports, power grids) within 72 hours; 2) Increased activity of Hezbollah in Lebanon, with potential for cross-border attacks on Israel within 48 hours. * **Time horizon:** Escalation is likely to occur within a week to two weeks, leading to a heightened state of tension and increased risk of wider conflict. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The Israeli military's announcement about the stri