Казначейские облигации падают на фоне данных о занятости и напряженности в Иране, ставки на повышение ставок

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** The escalation chain begins with escalating tensions between Iran and the US. This could trigger a series of military actions or increased sanctions, leading to a surge in oil prices within 1-2 weeks. The resulting spike in inflation would drive investors to demand higher interest rates from the Fed, causing Treasury yields to rise significantly by week 3-4. This will lead to a stock market correction with potential for volatility. * Increased rhetoric and military activity between Iran and US officials. * Oil prices surge above $100/barrel within one week. * A significant increase in the number of investors shorting Treasuries. **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** The status quo scenario continues with a slow and steady rise in inflation, driven by supply chain disrupt

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** The escalation chain begins with escalating tensions between Iran and the US. This could trigger a series of military actions or increased sanctions, leading to a surge in oil prices within 1-2 weeks. The resulting spike in inflation would drive investors to demand higher interest rates from the Fed, causing Treasury yields to rise significantly by week 3-4. This will lead to a stock market correction with potential for volatility. * Increased rhetoric and military activity between Iran and US officials. * Oil prices surge above $100/barrel within one week. * A significant increase in the number of investors shorting Treasuries. **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** The status quo scenario continues with a slow and steady rise in inflation, driven by supply chain disrupt

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** The escalation chain begins with escalating tensions between Iran and the US. This could trigger a series of military actions or increased sanctions, leading to a surge in oil prices within 1-2 weeks. The resulting spike in inflation would drive investors to demand higher interest rates from the Fed, causing Treasury yields to rise significantly by week 3-4. This will lead to a stock market correction with potential for volatility. * Increased rhetoric and military activity between Iran and US officials. * Oil prices surge above $100/barrel within one week. * A significant increase in the number of investors shorting Treasuries. **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** The status quo scenario continues with a slow and steady rise in inflation, driven by supply chain disrupt