Иранцы протестуют возле стадиона чемпионата мира перед матчем с Ираном

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Protests escalate in Iran, leading to government crackdowns and increased security measures at stadiums. Iranian diaspora groups may face heightened scrutiny or legal action for their protests. This could result in a more hostile atmosphere surrounding the World Cup, potentially impacting tourism and international relations. * **Confirmation indicators:** Iranian government issues warnings against "unlawful gatherings" or arrests of protesters within 5 days. Increased media coverage of escalating tensions with Western nations over the protests. * **Time horizon:** 7-14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The Iranian diaspora maintains peaceful protests, but authorities maintain a neutral stance and allow for free expression of dissent. The World Cup remains relatively unaffected by political tensions,

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Protests escalate in Iran, leading to government crackdowns and increased security measures at stadiums. Iranian diaspora groups may face heightened scrutiny or legal action for their protests. This could result in a more hostile atmosphere surrounding the World Cup, potentially impacting tourism and international relations. * **Confirmation indicators:** Iranian government issues warnings against "unlawful gatherings" or arrests of protesters within 5 days. Increased media coverage of escalating tensions with Western nations over the protests. * **Time horizon:** 7-14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The Iranian diaspora maintains peaceful protests, but authorities maintain a neutral stance and allow for free expression of dissent. The World Cup remains relatively unaffected by political tensions,

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Protests escalate in Iran, leading to government crackdowns and increased security measures at stadiums. Iranian diaspora groups may face heightened scrutiny or legal action for their protests. This could result in a more hostile atmosphere surrounding the World Cup, potentially impacting tourism and international relations. * **Confirmation indicators:** Iranian government issues warnings against "unlawful gatherings" or arrests of protesters within 5 days. Increased media coverage of escalating tensions with Western nations over the protests. * **Time horizon:** 7-14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The Iranian diaspora maintains peaceful protests, but authorities maintain a neutral stance and allow for free expression of dissent. The World Cup remains relatively unaffected by political tensions,