В КСИР заявили, что Израиль использовал в атаках баллистические ракеты воздушного базирования
Корпус стражей исламской революции (КСИР) заявил, что Израиль использовал баллистические ракеты воздушного базирования в своих последних атаках на цели внутри Ирана. В заявлении, опубликованном IRNA, КСИР заявил, что израильские силы нанесли удары по объектам «на нашей земле, используя баллистические ракеты воздушного базирования». В заявлении не содержалось немедленной дополнительной информации о целях, местонахождении или масштабах ущерба, нанесенного в результате заявленных атак.
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel's use of ballistic missiles triggers heightened tensions between Iran and Israel. Iran retaliates with increased missile strikes on Israeli targets, potentially escalating to a wider conflict involving regional powers. This could lead to broader international condemnation and sanctions against both nations. * **Confirmation indicators:** * Public statements from Iranian officials demanding retaliation within a specific timeframe. * Increased military activity near the border between Israel and Iran. * A confirmed attack on an Israeli civilian or strategic target by Iran, potentially involving ballistic missiles. * **Time horizon:** 7 to 14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The incident triggers diplomatic efforts from regional powers and international organizations to de-escalate
Status Quo
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel's use of ballistic missiles triggers heightened tensions between Iran and Israel. Iran retaliates with increased missile strikes on Israeli targets, potentially escalating to a wider conflict involving regional powers. This could lead to broader international condemnation and sanctions against both nations. * **Confirmation indicators:** * Public statements from Iranian officials demanding retaliation within a specific timeframe. * Increased military activity near the border between Israel and Iran. * A confirmed attack on an Israeli civilian or strategic target by Iran, potentially involving ballistic missiles. * **Time horizon:** 7 to 14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The incident triggers diplomatic efforts from regional powers and international organizations to de-escalate
De-escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel's use of ballistic missiles triggers heightened tensions between Iran and Israel. Iran retaliates with increased missile strikes on Israeli targets, potentially escalating to a wider conflict involving regional powers. This could lead to broader international condemnation and sanctions against both nations. * **Confirmation indicators:** * Public statements from Iranian officials demanding retaliation within a specific timeframe. * Increased military activity near the border between Israel and Iran. * A confirmed attack on an Israeli civilian or strategic target by Iran, potentially involving ballistic missiles. * **Time horizon:** 7 to 14 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The incident triggers diplomatic efforts from regional powers and international organizations to de-escalate
Первичный источник: Middle East Eye
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