Фондовые рынки Азии падают на фоне ирано-израильского конфликта, Уолл-стрит нервничает

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** **Chain:** Escalation begins with increased rhetoric and military posturing from both Iran and Israel. This leads to targeted sanctions, potentially including a cyberattack on Israeli infrastructure. Tensions escalate further as regional alliances react, leading to heightened risk aversion in global markets. Stock markets globally experience sharp declines, particularly those heavily reliant on Middle Eastern trade (e.g., oil, energy). **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** **Baseline:** The conflict remains primarily diplomatic, with limited direct engagement be

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** **Chain:** Escalation begins with increased rhetoric and military posturing from both Iran and Israel. This leads to targeted sanctions, potentially including a cyberattack on Israeli infrastructure. Tensions escalate further as regional alliances react, leading to heightened risk aversion in global markets. Stock markets globally experience sharp declines, particularly those heavily reliant on Middle Eastern trade (e.g., oil, energy). **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** **Baseline:** The conflict remains primarily diplomatic, with limited direct engagement be

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** **Chain:** Escalation begins with increased rhetoric and military posturing from both Iran and Israel. This leads to targeted sanctions, potentially including a cyberattack on Israeli infrastructure. Tensions escalate further as regional alliances react, leading to heightened risk aversion in global markets. Stock markets globally experience sharp declines, particularly those heavily reliant on Middle Eastern trade (e.g., oil, energy). **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** **Baseline:** The conflict remains primarily diplomatic, with limited direct engagement be