ВВС Израиля ночью нанесли удары по военным объектам в Иране — ЦАХАЛ

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel's air strikes trigger immediate retaliatory action from Iran, including ballistic missile launches towards Israeli targets. This escalates regional tensions, potentially leading to a full-scale conflict within days. The United States and other global powers intervene, increasing the risk of wider international involvement. * **Confirmation indicators:** Iranian military officials publicly announce retaliation against Israel, with specific details about targeted locations. A surge in anti-Israel protests erupts globally. * **Time horizon:** Escalation could occur within 72 hours to a week. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The Israeli air strikes are met by diplomatic efforts from the international community, including calls for de-escalation and mediation. Iran responds with public statements e

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel's air strikes trigger immediate retaliatory action from Iran, including ballistic missile launches towards Israeli targets. This escalates regional tensions, potentially leading to a full-scale conflict within days. The United States and other global powers intervene, increasing the risk of wider international involvement. * **Confirmation indicators:** Iranian military officials publicly announce retaliation against Israel, with specific details about targeted locations. A surge in anti-Israel protests erupts globally. * **Time horizon:** Escalation could occur within 72 hours to a week. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The Israeli air strikes are met by diplomatic efforts from the international community, including calls for de-escalation and mediation. Iran responds with public statements e

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel's air strikes trigger immediate retaliatory action from Iran, including ballistic missile launches towards Israeli targets. This escalates regional tensions, potentially leading to a full-scale conflict within days. The United States and other global powers intervene, increasing the risk of wider international involvement. * **Confirmation indicators:** Iranian military officials publicly announce retaliation against Israel, with specific details about targeted locations. A surge in anti-Israel protests erupts globally. * **Time horizon:** Escalation could occur within 72 hours to a week. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The Israeli air strikes are met by diplomatic efforts from the international community, including calls for de-escalation and mediation. Iran responds with public statements e