Иран объявляет о прекращении атак на Израиль после того, как Трамп заявил, что враги должны прекратить стрельбу

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran's announcement ends attacks on Israel triggers increased tensions in the region. Israel retaliates with airstrikes against Iranian targets, escalating the conflict. Tensions rise between regional powers like Saudi Arabia and UAE who may join the fray. This could lead to a larger-scale military confrontation within weeks. * Increased rhetoric from both Israel and Iran regarding further escalation. * Reports of increased activity by proxy forces in the region, such as Hezbollah or Hamas. * A significant increase in military deployments along the border between Israel and Iran. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The announcement from Trump leads to a temporary pause in hostilities. Both sides remain cautious, focusing on diplomatic channels for resolution. However,

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran's announcement ends attacks on Israel triggers increased tensions in the region. Israel retaliates with airstrikes against Iranian targets, escalating the conflict. Tensions rise between regional powers like Saudi Arabia and UAE who may join the fray. This could lead to a larger-scale military confrontation within weeks. * Increased rhetoric from both Israel and Iran regarding further escalation. * Reports of increased activity by proxy forces in the region, such as Hezbollah or Hamas. * A significant increase in military deployments along the border between Israel and Iran. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The announcement from Trump leads to a temporary pause in hostilities. Both sides remain cautious, focusing on diplomatic channels for resolution. However,

## Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% **Chain:** Iran's announcement ends attacks on Israel triggers increased tensions in the region. Israel retaliates with airstrikes against Iranian targets, escalating the conflict. Tensions rise between regional powers like Saudi Arabia and UAE who may join the fray. This could lead to a larger-scale military confrontation within weeks. * Increased rhetoric from both Israel and Iran regarding further escalation. * Reports of increased activity by proxy forces in the region, such as Hezbollah or Hamas. * A significant increase in military deployments along the border between Israel and Iran. ## Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% **Chain:** The announcement from Trump leads to a temporary pause in hostilities. Both sides remain cautious, focusing on diplomatic channels for resolution. However,