Экспорт российской сельскохозяйственной продукции на Ближний Восток продолжается, несмотря на конфликт

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Russia's agricultural exports to the Middle East increase in volume and frequency, leading to heightened diplomatic tensions with Western powers. This escalation could trigger sanctions on Russian agricultural goods or pressure from international organizations like the UN Security Council, potentially impacting global trade dynamics. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased rhetoric from both Russia and Western nations regarding the continued export of agricultural products, followed by a significant spike in military activity near the Caspian Sea region. * **Time horizon:** 30 to 60 days **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Baseline:** Russian agricultural exports to the Middle East continue at current levels, with minimal change in political dynamics or trade policies. This scenario assumes a continuation of e

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Russia's agricultural exports to the Middle East increase in volume and frequency, leading to heightened diplomatic tensions with Western powers. This escalation could trigger sanctions on Russian agricultural goods or pressure from international organizations like the UN Security Council, potentially impacting global trade dynamics. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased rhetoric from both Russia and Western nations regarding the continued export of agricultural products, followed by a significant spike in military activity near the Caspian Sea region. * **Time horizon:** 30 to 60 days **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Baseline:** Russian agricultural exports to the Middle East continue at current levels, with minimal change in political dynamics or trade policies. This scenario assumes a continuation of e

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** Russia's agricultural exports to the Middle East increase in volume and frequency, leading to heightened diplomatic tensions with Western powers. This escalation could trigger sanctions on Russian agricultural goods or pressure from international organizations like the UN Security Council, potentially impacting global trade dynamics. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased rhetoric from both Russia and Western nations regarding the continued export of agricultural products, followed by a significant spike in military activity near the Caspian Sea region. * **Time horizon:** 30 to 60 days **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Baseline:** Russian agricultural exports to the Middle East continue at current levels, with minimal change in political dynamics or trade policies. This scenario assumes a continuation of e