Иран хочет положить конец войне, а не нормализовать отношения с США – спикер парламента

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) - 50%** Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, blames US and Israel for escalating tensions. This triggers heightened diplomatic friction between Iran and the US. Within **10 days**, a series of military exercises by both countries near their shared borders is observed. The increased activity could lead to direct confrontations within **3 weeks** as both sides increase pressure on each other's strategic assets. * Increased rhetoric from Iranian officials about US and Israeli involvement in recent escalation. * Reports of heightened military drills and deployments near the border with US or Israel. * Confirmed exchange of diplomatic notes between Iran and US/Israel expressing dissatisfaction with recent actions. **Time horizon:** 10-3 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) - 38%** The escalation re

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) - 50%** Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, blames US and Israel for escalating tensions. This triggers heightened diplomatic friction between Iran and the US. Within **10 days**, a series of military exercises by both countries near their shared borders is observed. The increased activity could lead to direct confrontations within **3 weeks** as both sides increase pressure on each other's strategic assets. * Increased rhetoric from Iranian officials about US and Israeli involvement in recent escalation. * Reports of heightened military drills and deployments near the border with US or Israel. * Confirmed exchange of diplomatic notes between Iran and US/Israel expressing dissatisfaction with recent actions. **Time horizon:** 10-3 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) - 38%** The escalation re

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) - 50%** Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, blames US and Israel for escalating tensions. This triggers heightened diplomatic friction between Iran and the US. Within **10 days**, a series of military exercises by both countries near their shared borders is observed. The increased activity could lead to direct confrontations within **3 weeks** as both sides increase pressure on each other's strategic assets. * Increased rhetoric from Iranian officials about US and Israeli involvement in recent escalation. * Reports of heightened military drills and deployments near the border with US or Israel. * Confirmed exchange of diplomatic notes between Iran and US/Israel expressing dissatisfaction with recent actions. **Time horizon:** 10-3 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) - 38%** The escalation re