«Как только Трамп принял иранское предложение из 14 пунктов в качестве основы для переговоров, он предоставил Ирану политическую инициативу»
Кэрис Гарланд рада приветствовать Скотта Лукаса, профессора американских исследований и международной политики Института Клинтона Университетского колледжа Дублина. На фоне недавней эскалации отношений между Ираном, Израилем и США Лукас предупреждает, что и Тегеран, и Иерусалим все более готовы действовать независимо от предпочтений Вашингтона, демонстрируя то, что он называет уменьшающейся способностью Дональда Трампа диктовать события. Он также утверждает, что Тегеран активно стремится изменить дипломатическую структуру, настаивая на объединении событий в Ливане, Ормузском проливе, смягчении санкций и региональной безопасности в единый переговорный процесс.
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran and Israel escalate military activity in the region, potentially leading to direct conflict. Trump's administration remains largely silent, failing to effectively mediate a ceasefire or de-escalation efforts. This inaction fuels Iranian confidence and increases their willingness to challenge US influence. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased reports of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets within 24 hours of Trump's statement on the 14-point proposal; Iran announces an expansion of its military presence near disputed territories in the Gulf within a week. * **Time horizon:** 10 days to 3 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The US and Iran continue to engage in diplomatic efforts, but with limited progress. The Iranian government continues to push for concessions on sanctions relief and re
Status Quo
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran and Israel escalate military activity in the region, potentially leading to direct conflict. Trump's administration remains largely silent, failing to effectively mediate a ceasefire or de-escalation efforts. This inaction fuels Iranian confidence and increases their willingness to challenge US influence. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased reports of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets within 24 hours of Trump's statement on the 14-point proposal; Iran announces an expansion of its military presence near disputed territories in the Gulf within a week. * **Time horizon:** 10 days to 3 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The US and Iran continue to engage in diplomatic efforts, but with limited progress. The Iranian government continues to push for concessions on sanctions relief and re
De-escalation
## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Iran and Israel escalate military activity in the region, potentially leading to direct conflict. Trump's administration remains largely silent, failing to effectively mediate a ceasefire or de-escalation efforts. This inaction fuels Iranian confidence and increases their willingness to challenge US influence. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased reports of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets within 24 hours of Trump's statement on the 14-point proposal; Iran announces an expansion of its military presence near disputed territories in the Gulf within a week. * **Time horizon:** 10 days to 3 weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The US and Iran continue to engage in diplomatic efforts, but with limited progress. The Iranian government continues to push for concessions on sanctions relief and re
Первичный источник: France24
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