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geopolitical··severity 6

ЕС разрешил судам в Средиземном море задерживать танкеры с российской нефтью – Каллас

Верховный представитель ЕС по иностранным делам и политике безопасности заявил, что основная цель меры - «ограничить финансирование Россией» ее военной операции в Украине.

Сценарии цепочки

A

Escalation

50%

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** **Chain:** EU sanctions against Russian oil exports increase in severity and scope. Following increased pressure from NATO members, the EU implements a "no-fly zone" over the Mediterranean Sea to prevent Russian ships from transporting oil to other countries. This triggers retaliatory measures by Russia, including potential naval blockades of key shipping lanes. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** **Chain:** The EU continues to implement sanctions against Russian oil, but these measures remain relatively limited in scope and severity. The EU focuses on implement

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased tensions between Russia and the EU escalate into direct military confrontation in the Black Sea or Mediterranean. Russia's response includes increased military deployments near the EU's southern borders.
B

Status Quo

38%

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** **Chain:** EU sanctions against Russian oil exports increase in severity and scope. Following increased pressure from NATO members, the EU implements a "no-fly zone" over the Mediterranean Sea to prevent Russian ships from transporting oil to other countries. This triggers retaliatory measures by Russia, including potential naval blockades of key shipping lanes. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** **Chain:** The EU continues to implement sanctions against Russian oil, but these measures remain relatively limited in scope and severity. The EU focuses on implement

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased tensions between Russia and the EU escalate into direct military confrontation in the Black Sea or Mediterranean. Russia's response includes increased military deployments near the EU's southern borders.
C

De-escalation

13%

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** **Chain:** EU sanctions against Russian oil exports increase in severity and scope. Following increased pressure from NATO members, the EU implements a "no-fly zone" over the Mediterranean Sea to prevent Russian ships from transporting oil to other countries. This triggers retaliatory measures by Russia, including potential naval blockades of key shipping lanes. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** **Chain:** The EU continues to implement sanctions against Russian oil, but these measures remain relatively limited in scope and severity. The EU focuses on implement

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** Increased tensions between Russia and the EU escalate into direct military confrontation in the Black Sea or Mediterranean. Russia's response includes increased military deployments near the EU's southern borders.

Первичный источник: TASS English

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