Нетаньяху заявил, что боевые действия прекратились после того, как израильские удары заставили Иран прекратить атаки

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel launches further strikes on Iranian targets, including military facilities and infrastructure. Iran retaliates with missile attacks targeting Israeli civilian infrastructure and military bases. The escalation triggers a wider regional conflict involving regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and UAE. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased military activity from both sides, escalating rhetoric from political leaders, and reports of casualties in the region. * **Time horizon:** 10-20 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The ceasefire holds, with Israel and Iran maintaining a fragile balance of power. Tensions remain high, and diplomatic efforts continue to address the core issues. A new round of negotiations may be initiated between the two countries in the coming weeks. * **Confirmation

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel launches further strikes on Iranian targets, including military facilities and infrastructure. Iran retaliates with missile attacks targeting Israeli civilian infrastructure and military bases. The escalation triggers a wider regional conflict involving regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and UAE. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased military activity from both sides, escalating rhetoric from political leaders, and reports of casualties in the region. * **Time horizon:** 10-20 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The ceasefire holds, with Israel and Iran maintaining a fragile balance of power. Tensions remain high, and diplomatic efforts continue to address the core issues. A new round of negotiations may be initiated between the two countries in the coming weeks. * **Confirmation

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** * **Chain:** Israel launches further strikes on Iranian targets, including military facilities and infrastructure. Iran retaliates with missile attacks targeting Israeli civilian infrastructure and military bases. The escalation triggers a wider regional conflict involving regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and UAE. * **Confirmation indicators:** Increased military activity from both sides, escalating rhetoric from political leaders, and reports of casualties in the region. * **Time horizon:** 10-20 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** * **Chain:** The ceasefire holds, with Israel and Iran maintaining a fragile balance of power. Tensions remain high, and diplomatic efforts continue to address the core issues. A new round of negotiations may be initiated between the two countries in the coming weeks. * **Confirmation