Разрыв текущего счета Индии превзошел прогнозы на фоне роста денежных переводов

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** India's services exports to key markets like the US and UK experience a slowdown due to increased geopolitical tensions, leading to higher import costs for raw materials. This triggers retaliatory tariffs from these countries on Indian goods. * **Confirmation indicators:** India's trade deficit widens significantly in the coming months, with a notable increase in imports of energy and raw materials. * **Time horizon:** 10-15 days/weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** India implements a series of targeted policy measures to address the current account deficit, including stricter capital controls on remittances and increased investment in domestic services sectors. These measures are met with mixed reactions from both domestic and international investors. * **Confirmation indicators:** India's centr

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** India's services exports to key markets like the US and UK experience a slowdown due to increased geopolitical tensions, leading to higher import costs for raw materials. This triggers retaliatory tariffs from these countries on Indian goods. * **Confirmation indicators:** India's trade deficit widens significantly in the coming months, with a notable increase in imports of energy and raw materials. * **Time horizon:** 10-15 days/weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** India implements a series of targeted policy measures to address the current account deficit, including stricter capital controls on remittances and increased investment in domestic services sectors. These measures are met with mixed reactions from both domestic and international investors. * **Confirmation indicators:** India's centr

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** * **Chain:** India's services exports to key markets like the US and UK experience a slowdown due to increased geopolitical tensions, leading to higher import costs for raw materials. This triggers retaliatory tariffs from these countries on Indian goods. * **Confirmation indicators:** India's trade deficit widens significantly in the coming months, with a notable increase in imports of energy and raw materials. * **Time horizon:** 10-15 days/weeks **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** * **Chain:** India implements a series of targeted policy measures to address the current account deficit, including stricter capital controls on remittances and increased investment in domestic services sectors. These measures are met with mixed reactions from both domestic and international investors. * **Confirmation indicators:** India's centr