Балтийский флот России начинает маневры с участием более 10 истребителей и бомбардировщиков

## Scenario Forecasts **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** Russia's Baltic Fleet maneuvers with over 10 fighter jets and bombers could escalate into a direct military confrontation with a potential adversary, leading to heightened tensions in the region. Confirmation indicators include: **(1) NATO deployment of additional troops to eastern European countries; (2) Russian announcement of further military exercises involving nuclear-capable missiles.** This escalation could occur within **7 days**, triggering increased international diplomatic efforts and potentially escalating into direct conflict. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** The maneuvers themselves may be a routine display of power, with limited impact on the overall geopolitical landscape. Confirmation indicators include: **(1) No immediate escalation from other countries; (2) Continued dialogue between Russia and NATO.** This

## Scenario Forecasts **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** Russia's Baltic Fleet maneuvers with over 10 fighter jets and bombers could escalate into a direct military confrontation with a potential adversary, leading to heightened tensions in the region. Confirmation indicators include: **(1) NATO deployment of additional troops to eastern European countries; (2) Russian announcement of further military exercises involving nuclear-capable missiles.** This escalation could occur within **7 days**, triggering increased international diplomatic efforts and potentially escalating into direct conflict. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** The maneuvers themselves may be a routine display of power, with limited impact on the overall geopolitical landscape. Confirmation indicators include: **(1) No immediate escalation from other countries; (2) Continued dialogue between Russia and NATO.** This

## Scenario Forecasts **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** Russia's Baltic Fleet maneuvers with over 10 fighter jets and bombers could escalate into a direct military confrontation with a potential adversary, leading to heightened tensions in the region. Confirmation indicators include: **(1) NATO deployment of additional troops to eastern European countries; (2) Russian announcement of further military exercises involving nuclear-capable missiles.** This escalation could occur within **7 days**, triggering increased international diplomatic efforts and potentially escalating into direct conflict. **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** The maneuvers themselves may be a routine display of power, with limited impact on the overall geopolitical landscape. Confirmation indicators include: **(1) No immediate escalation from other countries; (2) Continued dialogue between Russia and NATO.** This