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geopolitical··severity 8

Япония готовится сбросить свою пацифистскую маску по мере подъема правых

Япония, похоже, все ближе приближается к референдуму по своей пацифистской конституции после того, как перегруппировка парламентских сил обеспечила подавляющее большинство, необходимое для того, чтобы вынести изменения на публичное голосование. На протяжении почти восьми десятилетий статья 9 конституции 1947 года, разработанной в условиях оккупации союзников и долгое время считавшейся неприкосновенной, не позволяла Токио формально содержать вооруженные силы с «военным потенциалом». Эта статья пережила все предыдущие попытки изменить ее. Но японские консерваторы...

Сценарии цепочки

A

Escalation

50%

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** **Chain:** 1. Japan's new government introduces legislation for a referendum on Article 9 repeal. 2. Public opinion shifts towards militarization, fueled by nationalist rhetoric and media coverage. 3. The referendum passes with a majority vote, triggering the re-establishment of a standing military force. **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** **Chain:** 1. The referendum on Article 9 remains inconclusive, with neither side achieving a clear majority. 2. Political deadlock ensues as both sides continu

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** 1) Japanese parliament approves legislation for a public referendum on Article 9. 2) Pro, militarist political parties gain significant ground in national elections. 3) Increased media coverage focusing on Japan's defense capabilities and potential military expansion.
B

Status Quo

38%

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** **Chain:** 1. Japan's new government introduces legislation for a referendum on Article 9 repeal. 2. Public opinion shifts towards militarization, fueled by nationalist rhetoric and media coverage. 3. The referendum passes with a majority vote, triggering the re-establishment of a standing military force. **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** **Chain:** 1. The referendum on Article 9 remains inconclusive, with neither side achieving a clear majority. 2. Political deadlock ensues as both sides continu

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** 1) Japanese parliament approves legislation for a public referendum on Article 9. 2) Pro, militarist political parties gain significant ground in national elections. 3) Increased media coverage focusing on Japan's defense capabilities and potential military expansion.
C

De-escalation

13%

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation) — 50%** **Chain:** 1. Japan's new government introduces legislation for a referendum on Article 9 repeal. 2. Public opinion shifts towards militarization, fueled by nationalist rhetoric and media coverage. 3. The referendum passes with a majority vote, triggering the re-establishment of a standing military force. **Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38%** **Chain:** 1. The referendum on Article 9 remains inconclusive, with neither side achieving a clear majority. 2. Political deadlock ensues as both sides continu

Индикаторы подтверждения: ** 1) Japanese parliament approves legislation for a public referendum on Article 9. 2) Pro, militarist political parties gain significant ground in national elections. 3) Increased media coverage focusing on Japan's defense capabilities and potential military expansion.

Первичный источник: South China Morning Post

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