По меньшей мере один человек погиб, четверо получили ранения в результате землетрясения магнитудой 7,8 на юге Филиппин.

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** The earthquake's impact will trigger increased political instability in the Philippines. Local tensions will rise as communities demand immediate aid and accountability from the government, potentially leading to protests and civil unrest. This will escalate into a regional crisis if neighboring countries intervene with conflicting interests or exacerbate existing tensions. **Confirmation indicators:** Increased calls for military intervention by local officials within 3 days; social media posts depicting violence in General Santos City within 5 days. **Time horizon:** 10-20 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** The immediate response to the earthquake will involve emergency relief efforts, with international aid organizations providing support and assistance. The government will focus on stabilizing the affected areas and ensuri

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** The earthquake's impact will trigger increased political instability in the Philippines. Local tensions will rise as communities demand immediate aid and accountability from the government, potentially leading to protests and civil unrest. This will escalate into a regional crisis if neighboring countries intervene with conflicting interests or exacerbate existing tensions. **Confirmation indicators:** Increased calls for military intervention by local officials within 3 days; social media posts depicting violence in General Santos City within 5 days. **Time horizon:** 10-20 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** The immediate response to the earthquake will involve emergency relief efforts, with international aid organizations providing support and assistance. The government will focus on stabilizing the affected areas and ensuri

## Scenario Analysis **Scenario A (Escalation): 50%** The earthquake's impact will trigger increased political instability in the Philippines. Local tensions will rise as communities demand immediate aid and accountability from the government, potentially leading to protests and civil unrest. This will escalate into a regional crisis if neighboring countries intervene with conflicting interests or exacerbate existing tensions. **Confirmation indicators:** Increased calls for military intervention by local officials within 3 days; social media posts depicting violence in General Santos City within 5 days. **Time horizon:** 10-20 days **Scenario B (Status Quo): 38%** The immediate response to the earthquake will involve emergency relief efforts, with international aid organizations providing support and assistance. The government will focus on stabilizing the affected areas and ensuri