Никого не испугали угрозы Трампа ввести пошлины за отказ от доллара – Лула
Комментируя политику Дональда Трампа с момента его вступления в должность в январе этого года, бразильский лидер отметил, что новый президент был избран американцами, «чтобы управлять Соединенными Штатами, а не всем миром».
Сценарии цепочки
Escalation
Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Trump's rhetoric escalates into concrete action with the imposition of duties on goods from Brazil and other Latin American countries, potentially targeting agricultural exports. This could trigger retaliatory measures by Brazil and other nations. * Confirmation Indicators: Increased trade tensions between the US and Brazil as evidenced by official statements from both governments and a significant increase in tariffs imposed on Brazilian products. * Time Horizon: Within 2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The rhetoric of Trump's policies regarding global influence continues to be a point of tension, but without concrete action or escalation. This could lead to increased diplomatic efforts between the US and Brazil to maintain economic ties. * Confirmation Indicators: Continued public
Status Quo
Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Trump's rhetoric escalates into concrete action with the imposition of duties on goods from Brazil and other Latin American countries, potentially targeting agricultural exports. This could trigger retaliatory measures by Brazil and other nations. * Confirmation Indicators: Increased trade tensions between the US and Brazil as evidenced by official statements from both governments and a significant increase in tariffs imposed on Brazilian products. * Time Horizon: Within 2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The rhetoric of Trump's policies regarding global influence continues to be a point of tension, but without concrete action or escalation. This could lead to increased diplomatic efforts between the US and Brazil to maintain economic ties. * Confirmation Indicators: Continued public
De-escalation
Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation): 50% * Chain: Trump's rhetoric escalates into concrete action with the imposition of duties on goods from Brazil and other Latin American countries, potentially targeting agricultural exports. This could trigger retaliatory measures by Brazil and other nations. * Confirmation Indicators: Increased trade tensions between the US and Brazil as evidenced by official statements from both governments and a significant increase in tariffs imposed on Brazilian products. * Time Horizon: Within 2 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo): 38% * Chain: The rhetoric of Trump's policies regarding global influence continues to be a point of tension, but without concrete action or escalation. This could lead to increased diplomatic efforts between the US and Brazil to maintain economic ties. * Confirmation Indicators: Continued public
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