Россия и Иран заинтересованы в предотвращении напряженности вокруг ядерной программы Тегерана — МИД

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Russia and Iran may intensify diplomatic pressure on the IAEA to impose sanctions on Iran's nuclear program. This could lead to heightened tensions between Tehran and Western powers, potentially resulting in a temporary escalation of military maneuvers near the Strait of Hormuz. * Confirmation indicators: A joint statement from both countries expressing strong opposition to the IAEA Board's decision regarding Iran's nuclear program. Increased activity by Iranian military forces along its borders with Israel and Saudi Arabia. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Russia and Iran engage in diplomatic efforts to maintain a stable relationship and avoid conflict, potentially leading to increased cooperation on the nuclear program. This could involve joint negotiations with t

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Russia and Iran may intensify diplomatic pressure on the IAEA to impose sanctions on Iran's nuclear program. This could lead to heightened tensions between Tehran and Western powers, potentially resulting in a temporary escalation of military maneuvers near the Strait of Hormuz. * Confirmation indicators: A joint statement from both countries expressing strong opposition to the IAEA Board's decision regarding Iran's nuclear program. Increased activity by Iranian military forces along its borders with Israel and Saudi Arabia. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Russia and Iran engage in diplomatic efforts to maintain a stable relationship and avoid conflict, potentially leading to increased cooperation on the nuclear program. This could involve joint negotiations with t

Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Russia and Iran may intensify diplomatic pressure on the IAEA to impose sanctions on Iran's nuclear program. This could lead to heightened tensions between Tehran and Western powers, potentially resulting in a temporary escalation of military maneuvers near the Strait of Hormuz. * Confirmation indicators: A joint statement from both countries expressing strong opposition to the IAEA Board's decision regarding Iran's nuclear program. Increased activity by Iranian military forces along its borders with Israel and Saudi Arabia. * Time horizon: 10-20 days Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Russia and Iran engage in diplomatic efforts to maintain a stable relationship and avoid conflict, potentially leading to increased cooperation on the nuclear program. This could involve joint negotiations with t