Турция ожидает, что Россия и Украина проведут еще один раунд переговоров - топ-дипломат

Министр иностранных дел Турции Хакан Фидан отметил, что вчерашние переговоры привели к важным соглашениям, например, об очередном обмене военнопленными и больными. A: Escalation (model probability 35%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Russia and Ukraine continue to engage in military actions, with Turkey's role as mediator diminished. Tensions escalate further, leading to increased risk of a direct conflict between NATO members and Russia. This could involve heightened sanctions from the West, potentially impacting global markets and supply chains. * Confirmation indicators: Increased reports of escalated military activity on the ground in Ukraine, including confirmed casualties from both sides. A significant shift in geopolitical rhetoric towards escalating tensions by key players. * Time horizon: 1 to 3 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Turkey continues to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, facilitating prisoner exchanges and diplomatic efforts. The focus remains on humanitarian aid delivery and de-escalation mea B: Status Quo (model probability 47%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Russia and Ukraine continue to engage in military actions, with Turkey's role as mediator diminished. Tensions escalate further, leading to increased risk of a direct conflict between NATO members and Russia. This could involve heightened sanctions from the West, potentially impacting global markets and supply chains. * Confirmation indicators: Increased reports of escalated military activity on the ground in Ukraine, including confirmed casualties from both sides. A significant shift in geopolitical rhetoric towards escalating tensions by key players. * Time horizon: 1 to 3 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Turkey continues to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, facilitating prisoner exchanges and diplomatic efforts. The focus remains on humanitarian aid delivery and de-escalation mea C: De-escalation (model probability 17%, not a guarantee) — Scenario Analysis Scenario A (Escalation) — 50% * Chain: Russia and Ukraine continue to engage in military actions, with Turkey's role as mediator diminished. Tensions escalate further, leading to increased risk of a direct conflict between NATO members and Russia. This could involve heightened sanctions from the West, potentially impacting global markets and supply chains. * Confirmation indicators: Increased reports of escalated military activity on the ground in Ukraine, including confirmed casualties from both sides. A significant shift in geopolitical rhetoric towards escalating tensions by key players. * Time horizon: 1 to 3 weeks Scenario B (Status Quo) — 38% * Chain: Turkey continues to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, facilitating prisoner exchanges and diplomatic efforts. The focus remains on humanitarian aid delivery and de-escalation mea

Турция ожидает, что Россия и Украина проведут еще один раунд переговоров - топ-дипломат

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Эскалация

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Деэскалация